JOURNAL OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS JOURNAL OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS Журнал региональной и международной конкурентоспособности 2782-1927 132420 10.52957/2782-1927-2026-7-2-10-17 NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS Abstract. This article examines the structural configuration of agricultural trade between the Russian Federation and the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over the period 2015-2024. Drawing on disaggregated bilateral trade data across HS chapters 01-24 sourced from ASEANstats and ITC Trade Map, the study applies four complementary analytical measures: Shannon export entropy to quantify product diversification, the Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage (BRCA) index to assess bilateral specialisation, the Balassa Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index to evaluate global competitiveness, and the Trade Intensity Index (TII) to gauge the depth of mutual trade engagement. The analysis reveals a persistent structural asymmetry: ASEAN maintains a broadly diversified agricultural export portfolio toward Russia (average entropy 1.94), while Russia's exports to ASEAN are concentrated in cereals, fish, and vegetable oils (average entropy 1.42). BRCA results confirm complementary rather than competitive specialisation across the majority of HS categories. The TII remained above unity throughout the entire decade and accelerated from 1.17 in 2020 to 1.32 in 2024, indicating that bilateral trade intensity is deepening beyond globally predicted benchmarks. The post-2022 acceleration coincides with Russia's geopolitical reorientation away from Western markets. The article argues that the relationship rests on durable agro-climatic complementarities and intensifying structural interdependence, while identifying SPS regulatory divergence, logistical distance, and export policy unpredictability as the three principal constraints on further expansion. Keywords: Russia-ASEAN trade; agricultural trade; comparative advantage; Shannon entropy; Trade Intensity Index; export diversification; food security; bilateral complementarity; geopolitical trade reorientation JEL codes: F14, Q17, Q18, F51 DOI: 10.52957/2782-1927-2026-7-2--1 For citation: Yasir Sa'adu. (2026). Structural asymmetry and bilateral complementarity in Russia-ASEAN trade in Agri-products: evidence from entropy, comparative advantage, and trade intensity measures. Journal of regional and international competitiveness, 7(2), . Структурная асимметрия и двусторонняя взаимодополняемость в торговле сельскохозяйственной продукцией между Россией и АСЕАН: анализ на основе энтропии, сравнительных преимуществ и показателей интенсивности торговли Сааду Ясир Sa'adu Yasir Saadu_y@my.mgimo.ru Московский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) Министерства иностранных дел Российской Федерации Москва Россия Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Moscow Russian Federation 28 06 2026 28 06 2026 7 2 10 17 12 03 2026 21 05 2026 https://jraic.com/en/nauka/article/132420/view

В статье исследуется структурная конфигурация торговли сельскохозяйственной продукцией между Российской Федерацией и десятью государствами – членами Ассоциации государств Юго-Восточной Азии (АСЕАН) за период 2015–2024 гг. На основе детализированных данных о двусторонней торговле по товарным группам 01–24 Гармонизированной системы (HS), полученных из баз данных ASEANstats и ITC Trade Map, применяются четыре взаимодополняющих аналитических показателя: экспортная энтропия Шеннона для количественной оценки диверсификации товарной структуры экспорта, индекс двустороннего выявленного сравнительного преимущества (BRCA) для оценки двусторонней специализации, индекс выявленного сравнительного преимущества Балассы (RCA) для оценки глобальной конкурентоспособности, а также индекс интенсивности торговли (TII) для определения глубины взаимных торговых связей. Результаты анализа свидетельствуют о наличии устойчивой структурной асимметрии: страны АСЕАН поддерживают широко диверсифицированный экспорт сельскохозяйственной продукции в Россию (среднее значение энтропии – 1,94), тогда как российский экспорт в страны АСЕАН сосредоточен преимущественно на зерновых культурах, рыбе и растительных маслах (среднее значение энтропии – 1,42). Результаты расчета индекса BRCA подтверждают наличие взаимодополняющей, а не конкурентной специализации по большинству товарных групп HS. Значение индекса интенсивности торговли (TII) на протяжении всего исследуемого десятилетия превышало единицу и увеличилось с 1,17 в 2020 г. до 1,32 в 2024 г., что свидетельствует об углублении интенсивности двусторонней торговли сверх уровня, прогнозируемого глобальными торговыми моделями. Ускорение данного процесса после 2022 г. совпадает с геополитической переориентацией России с западных рынков. В статье делается вывод, что торговые отношения между Россией и АСЕАН основаны на устойчивой агроклиматической взаимодополняемости и усиливающейся структурной взаимозависимости. Вместе с тем выявлены три ключевых ограничения дальнейшего расширения сотрудничества: различия в санитарных и фитосанитарных требованиях, значительная логистическая удаленность и непредсказуемость экспортной политики.

This article examines the structural configuration of agricultural trade between the Russian Federation and the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over the period 2015-2024. Drawing on disaggregated bilateral trade data across HS chapters 01-24 sourced from ASEANstats and ITC Trade Map, the study applies four complementary analytical measures: Shannon export entropy to quantify product diversification, the Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage (BRCA) index to assess bilateral specialisation, the Balassa Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index to evaluate global competitiveness, and the Trade Intensity Index (TII) to gauge the depth of mutual trade engagement. The analysis reveals a persistent structural asymmetry: ASEAN maintains a broadly diversified agricultural export portfolio toward Russia (average entropy 1.94), while Russia's exports to ASEAN are concentrated in cereals, fish, and vegetable oils (average entropy 1.42). BRCA results confirm complementary rather than competitive specialisation across the majority of HS categories. The TII remained above unity throughout the entire decade and accelerated from 1.17 in 2020 to 1.32 in 2024, indicating that bilateral trade intensity is deepening beyond globally predicted benchmarks. The post-2022 acceleration coincides with Russia's geopolitical reorientation away from Western markets. The article argues that the relationship rests on durable agro-climatic complementarities and intensifying structural interdependence, while identifying SPS regulatory divergence, logistical distance, and export policy unpredictability as the three principal constraints on further expansion.

 торговля России и АСЕАН; торговля сельскохозяйственной продукцией; сравнительные преимущества; энтропия Шеннона; индекс интенсивности торговли; диверсификация экспорта; продовольственная безопасность; двусторонняя взаимодополняемость; геополитическая переориентация торговли Russia-ASEAN trade; agricultural trade; comparative advantage; Shannon entropy; Trade Intensity Index; export diversification; food security; bilateral complementarity; geopolitical trade reorientation

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