Yaroslavl, Yaroslavl, Russian Federation
Yaroslavl, Russian Federation
Integration processes generate so-called "spillover effects", which have an impact on the welfare of the population of the countries involved in integration processes. The purpose of the study is to assess the inflationary channel of the integration spillover effects on the EAEU member countries population welfare. The hypothesis of the study is that there should be an inverse (statistically significant) relationship between inflation in Russia and the EAEU member countries population welfare. "Inflationary shocks" coming from the Russian economy (through the channel of mutual trade); in the conditions of open borders in the EAEU space it will spread to the Union States. At the same time, they will reduce the population living standards through the growth of Consumer price index, increase in Gini index, decrease in average monthly net salary (after tax), and Human Development Index. We used correlation analysis to test the hypothesis proposed. As a result, the hypothesis proposed in the paper was generally not confirmed by the data characterising the EAEU member states economy over the long term time period. The data analysis showed that inflation in Russia has no impact on the population living standards in the EAEU member states (except for Kazakhstan: a direct statistically significant correlation was found between the dynamics of inflation in Russia and its average net salary).
INFLATION, SPILLOVER EFFECTS, CORRELATION ANALYSIS, EAEU, INTEGRATION, POPULATION WELFARE
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