Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
JEL Q17 Agriculture in International Trade
JEL Q18 Agricultural Policy • Food Policy • Animal Welfare Policy
JEL F51 International Conflicts • Negotiations • Sanctions
This article examines the structural configuration of agricultural trade between the Russian Federation and the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over the period 2015-2024. Drawing on disaggregated bilateral trade data across HS chapters 01-24 sourced from ASEANstats and ITC Trade Map, the study applies four complementary analytical measures: Shannon export entropy to quantify product diversification, the Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage (BRCA) index to assess bilateral specialisation, the Balassa Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index to evaluate global competitiveness, and the Trade Intensity Index (TII) to gauge the depth of mutual trade engagement. The analysis reveals a persistent structural asymmetry: ASEAN maintains a broadly diversified agricultural export portfolio toward Russia (average entropy 1.94), while Russia's exports to ASEAN are concentrated in cereals, fish, and vegetable oils (average entropy 1.42). BRCA results confirm complementary rather than competitive specialisation across the majority of HS categories. The TII remained above unity throughout the entire decade and accelerated from 1.17 in 2020 to 1.32 in 2024, indicating that bilateral trade intensity is deepening beyond globally predicted benchmarks. The post-2022 acceleration coincides with Russia's geopolitical reorientation away from Western markets. The article argues that the relationship rests on durable agro-climatic complementarities and intensifying structural interdependence, while identifying SPS regulatory divergence, logistical distance, and export policy unpredictability as the three principal constraints on further expansion.
Russia-ASEAN trade; agricultural trade; comparative advantage; Shannon entropy; Trade Intensity Index; export diversification; food security; bilateral complementarity; geopolitical trade reorientation
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